The aftermath of Hurricane Eta in Guatemala. WMO: up to 25 storms and 13 hurricanes expected in the Atlantic this year Climate and Environment
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates that warm ocean temperatures and the expected development of La Niña will lead to a major North Atlantic hurricane season this year. This is reported from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicts above-normal activity for the coming season, with 17 to 25 named storms, against an average of 14. Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (against the normal of seven), including from four to seven – strong hurricanes (with the norm being three). A strong hurricane is considered a storm with winds of 178 km/h.
The WMO Tropical Cyclone Program annually monitors the Atlantic hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to November 30. According to the organization, above average activity has been observed for eight years in a row.
“All it takes is one hurricane to make landfall to undo years of socio-economic development. For example, Hurricane Maria cost Dominica 800 percent of its GDP in 2017,” said WMO Secretary-General Co Barrett. He said early warning systems and improvements in risk management had significantly reduced the number of deaths, but small island developing states in the Caribbean continued to suffer disproportionately.
“That’s why WMO and its partners are prioritizing early warning efforts in small islands through the international Early Warning for All initiative and will demonstrate the need for more coordinated and targeted investment in early warning systems at the upcoming International Conference on Small Island Developing States,” said Barrett.
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“We must be especially vigilant this year due to near-record ocean temperatures in the region , where Atlantic hurricanes form, and the transition to La Niña conditions, which together contribute to increased storm formation,” Barrett added. , creates dangers for coastal communities. Between 1970 and 2021, tropical cyclones (which include hurricanes) have become a major cause of both human and economic loss worldwide. However, the death toll has fallen from more than 350,000 in the 1970s to less than 20,000 between 2010 and 2019. Economic losses due to cyclones in 2010–2019 are estimated at $573.2 billion.