Photo UN/E. Debebe Climate change is causing glaciers to melt rapidly. WMO report: new global temperature records await us Climate and Environment
Over the next five years, average global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels, with temperature anomalies in the Arctic expected to exceed global averages. This is stated in a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It summarizes forecasts prepared by 13 different institutes.
The report analyzes climate data over the past five years and provides regional temperature and precipitation forecasts for the next five years. Average annual global surface temperatures in 2026−2030 are expected to be 1.3−1.9 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average (1850−1900 period).
New records
Probability that one year Between 2026 and 2030 it will be hotter than 2024 and become the warmest year on record, at 86 percent. However, the average global surface temperature will temporarily exceed the 1850-1900 average by 1.5 degrees Celsius for at least one year between 2026 and 2030 (91 percent chance). higher than the value for the period 1850−1900 by 1.5 degrees Celsius.
However, most likely, the temperature will not exceed the average value for the period 1850-1900 by more than 2 degrees Celsius. Experts also predict El Niño conditions will develop, especially in 2027 and 2028.
“El Niño is forecast for late 2026, increasing the likelihood that next year, 2027, will be another record year,” said the report’s lead author, Leon Hermanson.
The 1.5 degrees Celsius (and 2 degrees Celsius) level set in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming – typically over 20 years. The fact that global average temperatures temporarily exceed these levels in some years does not mean that the long-term temperature targets set out in the Paris Agreement have become unattainable. (November-March) will be 2.8 Celsius above the 1991-2020 average, more than three and a half times the average global temperature over the same period, the report says. Sea of Okhotsk.
Precipitation forecasts indicate that the Northern Hemisphere will experience wetter than normal weather over the next five winter seasons. In the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, wet weather, on the contrary, will occur in the summer.