Uncertainty is firmly built into the world economy and forms trade flows, experts of the Junctada believe. Uncertainty as a new tariff: price for the global economy Economic development World trade has always encountered shocks – from tariffs and pandemics to geopolitical tension. But today the situation has changed: uncertainty in itself has become a systemic factor. This is evidenced by UN Conference experts in trade and development (Junctad). uncertainty is no longer the result of individual events, they say. The unpredictability of the policy is firmly built into the world economy, it forms trading flows and affects investments. ~ 60 > As the last review of global trade, prepared Junctad, the atmosphere of uncertainty increases the costs, destabilizes financial markets and increases the gap between countries. increase in growth 62 > 62 >The trade policy uncertainty index reached record values in the first quarter of 2025, that is, unpredictability has become a global trend. 62 ~ ~ 60 > companies are forced to choose between expensive alternatives: accumulate goods, redirect goods along new routes or pay for more expensive transportation. At the beginning of 2025, the volatility of imports in the United States grew compared to last year – even before the introduction of tariffs, since the business was in a hurry to adapt to potential changes. The cost of uncertainty itself often outweighs tariffs, experts note. ~ 60 > it is especially difficult for small exporters and developing economies that have limited resources in the field of finances and logistics. risks for financial and financial and risks for financial and financial and risks for financial and financial and risks for financial and financial and risks for financial and financial and risks for financial and financial and risks macroeconomic stability The effect of uncertainty is not limited to trade. Currency courses are fluctuated, capital flows are reduced, the cost of borrowing is growing. ~ 60 > for developing countries, where access to financing is already limited, this means a deficit of loans and reducing investments. With preserved high world rates, unpredictability limits the capabilities of states to finance growth and social development. ~ 60 > undermining and cooperation most destructive consequence of uncertainty – loss of trust. When the rules are unclear or applied selectively, governments resort to unilateral measures, which, in turn, lead to response. ~ ~ 60 > this cycle fits volatility in supply chains. Data of the Junktad show: if the developed economies at the beginning of 2025 showed more than restoration of stability and predictability 60 > consequences are obvious: volatility negatively affects those who are the smallest of those who are the least to it adapted. Junctad experts emphasize that diversification of markets, strengthening trade agreements and timely informing the business community about the upcoming changes in politics can reduce risks. 60 > main thing, they believe, restore stability and predictability. Without this, the company will not invest, the economy will not be able to grow, and trade will not fulfill its key role – to serve as an engine engine.