The UN building in Geneva. Ukraine: Ukraine’s population has fallen by 10 million since 2014 Economic development
The war has exacerbated Ukraine’s demographic problems: after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the birth rate in the country fell to one child per woman. This is the lowest rate in Europe and one of the lowest in the world. Florence Bauer, a representative of the UN Population Fund, cited these figures at a briefing for journalists in Geneva on Tuesday.
Even before the war, the demographic situation was difficult: the birth rate was among the lowest in the European region, many Ukrainians were leaving the country, the country’s population was shrinking and aging. Such trends are typical for Eastern European countries, Bauer noted.
However, with the start of the full-scale invasion, the situation has worsened significantly. Millions of people left their homes, with 6.7 million finding themselves abroad as refugees. The population of many regions of Ukraine has decreased, with mostly young people leaving, while older people have remained.
Bauer also recalled the victims of the armed hostilities. According to the UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR), at least 11,973 people were officially killed among the civilian population alone during the war.
Overall, Ukraine’s population has declined by about 10 million people since 2014 (8 million since 2022 alone).
“This represents a huge loss of human capital, which we know is critical to Ukraine’s recovery and future,” Bauer said.
To address the demographic challenges, the Ukrainian authorities, with support from UNFPA, have developed and adopted a national demographic strategy.
“This strategy takes into account the experience of other countries that have focused solely on trying to increase the birth rate to address their demographic challenges and have largely failed. Instead, the strategy takes a holistic approach and puts human capital at the forefront,” Bauer said.
The strategy takes into account the experience of other countries that have focused solely on trying to increase fertility and have largely failed.
In particular, the Ukrainian authorities are taking into account the need for broader socio-economic changes, including creating opportunities for young families and providing them with the necessary childcare, education and health services.
Bauer noted that successful examples from countries such as Sweden show that inclusive policies that include gender equality, paternity leave and parent-friendly working conditions are key to creating an environment in which people feel confident and not afraid to start families.
According to the UNFPA representative, Ukraine has managed to achieve some progress: for example, in 2021 a law was adopted encouraging shared care for children.
She also stressed that in order to effectively plan for Ukraine’s recovery, it is urgent to conduct a population census as soon as the security situation allows. The last census was conducted in 2001.
A thorough demographic analysis will help determine Ukraine’s long-term economic and social development strategies, although much depends on whether peace returns to the country, Bauer concluded.