Climate change is causing the planet to experience more extreme weather events, including severe droughts. 2024 could be the hottest year on record Climate and Environment
2024 has seen a string of exceptionally high monthly global temperatures and is set to become the warmest year on record, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) presented today at the opening of the UN Climate Conference in Baku.
The period from 2015 to 2024 will be the warmest decade on record, the WMO said on red alert due to rapid climate change, which is being accelerated by greenhouse gas emissions. Glacier melting, sea level rise and ocean warming are accelerating, while extreme weather is damaging economies around the world.
The average global surface temperature for January to September 2024 was 1.54 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, helped by warming caused by the El Niño phenomenon, according to an analysis of six international data sets used by the WMO.
“Climate catastrophe is damaging health, widening inequality, undermining sustainable development and undermining the foundations of peace. Vulnerable people are suffering the most,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
The report was released on the first day of the 29th UN Climate Change Conference, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan. It stresses that the goals of the Paris Agreement are under grave threat.
“While monthly and annual warming has temporarily exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius, it is important to stress that this does not mean that we have failed to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of holding the long-term increase in global average surface temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and continuing efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
“Recorded global temperature anomalies on daily, monthly and annual timescales are subject to significant variations, partly due to natural phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña. They should not be confused with the long-term goal set in the Paris Agreement, which is for global temperature levels to be maintained on average for decades,” she said.
However, she stressed that every fraction of a degree of warming matters. Regardless of whether it is below or above 1.5 degrees Celsius, each new stage of global warming intensifies extreme climate events.
“The record rainfall and flooding, rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, deadly heat waves, persistent drought and raging wildfires we have seen in parts of the world this year are, sadly, our new reality and a harbinger of our future,” Saulo said.
“We urgently need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen the monitoring and understanding of climate change. We need to strengthen measures to support climate change adaptation through the provision of climate information and the Early Warning for All initiative,” she added.
Global Average Temperature
The global average temperature in 2024 could even exceed that of 2023, the warmest year so far. For 16 consecutive months (June 2023 to September 2024), the global average temperature was likely to have exceeded all records before 2023, often by a wide margin, according to a WMO data synthesis.
Greenhouse gases
Greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere reached record levels in 2023. Real-time data show that they continued to rise in 2024. The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has increased from about 278 parts per million in 1750 to 420 parts per million in 2023, an increase of 51 percent. This is causing temperatures to rise.
Ocean
Ocean heat content in 2023 was the highest on record, and preliminary data suggest it will remain at a comparable level in 2024. The rate of ocean warming has accelerated particularly rapidly over the past two decades. From 2005 to 2023, the ocean absorbed an average of about 3.1 million terawatt-hours of heat per year. This is more than 18 times the global energy consumption in 2023.
Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise is accelerating due to the expansion of warm waters and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Between 2014 and 2023, the global average sea level rose by 4.77 mm per year, more than double the rate from 1993 to 2002.
The El Niño effect caused it to rise even faster in 2023. Preliminary data for 2024 show that with the weakening of El Niño, sea level rise has returned to the rate of increase from 2014 to 2022.
Glacier Melting
Glacier melting is accelerating. In 2023, the world’s glaciers lost record volumes of ice, about five times the volume of water in the Dead Sea. This is the largest loss since measurements began in 1953, caused by extreme melting in North America and Europe. In Switzerland, glaciers lost about 10 percent of their volume.
Antarctic sea ice extent was the second lowest in the satellite record (1979–2024).
Weather and Climate Extremes
Weather and climate extreme events have disrupted social and economic development everywhere, exacerbating food insecurity and exacerbating displacement and migration issues. Heat waves have affected millions of people worldwide. Heavy rainfall, flooding and tropical cyclones have caused huge loss of life and economic losses.
Early Warning
Significant progress has been made in early warning over the past five years, including through the UN’s “early warning for all” initiative, which aims to ensure that everyone is protected from hazardous weather, water or climate events with early warning by the end of 2027. 108 countries have reported having systems in place.