WMO forecast: global temperature rise may temporarily exceed 1.5 °C

Прогноз ВМО: рост глобальной температуры может временно превысить 1,5 °C

Global warming is leading to an increase in extreme weather events. Pictured: Ethiopia WMO forecast: global temperature rise may temporarily exceed 1.5 °C Climate and Environment

According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80 percent chance that average annual global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels during at least one of the next five years. 

Signal for humanity 

This should be a signal to humanity that we are getting closer to the limits set by the Paris Agreement on climate change. Recall that this paper is talking about long-term temperature increases over decades, not over one to five years. That is, the international community still has a chance to stop this trend and keep long-term warming within 1.5 degrees. 

The WMO report indicates that according to , the global average surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 will be 1.1°C to 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. It says there is an 86% chance that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, breaking the record of 2023, which is currently considered the warmest year on record.

Probability of exceeding 1.5 °C

There is a 47 percent chance that global temperatures averaged over the entire five-year period from 2024 to 2028 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the WMO Global Climate Update says. Previously, the figure was 32 percent. 

The likelihood of exceeding 1.5°C in at least one of the next five years has been steadily increasing since 2015. when such a probability was close to zero. For the period 2017 to 2021, the probability of exceedance was 20 percent, and for the period 2023 to 2027 this increased to 66 percent.

Bulletin prepared by the United Kingdom Met Office, which is WMO Lead Center for Annual/Decadal Climate Forecasting. It summarizes forecasts received from WMO-designated global forecast centers and other participating centres.

Speech by the UN Secretary-General

Its release coincides with a landmark speech by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres calling for more ambitious action on climate change ahead of the G7 meeting in Italy June 13-15.

“Behind these statistics lies a grim reality: we are far behind schedule in achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett. “We must urgently do more to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or face an even greater price in the form of trillions of dollars in economic costs, the lives of millions of people exposed to more extreme weather, and significant damage to the environment and biodiversity.” .

Paris Agreement

Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to keep long-term average global surface temperatures well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to continue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C by the end of this century. The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5°C could lead to much more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather, and every fraction of a degree of warming matters.

Extreme weather

Even at current levels of global warming, devastating climate impacts are already being seen. These include more extreme heat waves, extreme precipitation and droughts; reduction of ice sheets, sea ice and glaciers; accelerating sea level rise and ocean warming.

“We are living in unprecedented times, but we also have unprecedented climate monitoring skills that can help inform our actions. This string of hottest months will be remembered as relatively cold, but if we can stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in the very near future, we may be able to return to these ‘cold’ temperatures by the end of the century,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Service. on climate change issues within the framework of the Copernicus program.

Impact of El Niño

According to the WMO report “State of global climate in 2023″, the average global surface temperature in 2023 was 1.45 °C (with an error of ± 0.12 °C) above the pre-industrial baseline. It was by far the warmest year on record, driven by long-term climate warming combined with other factors, most notably the natural El Niño phenomenon, which is now waning.

Global temperatures rose last year under the influence of El Niño. A new WMO bulletin forecasts La Niña and a return to cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific in the near future, but rising global temperatures over the next five years reflect continued warming caused by greenhouse gases. 


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