The past four years have been extremely difficult for the people of Myanmar. UNDP report: Four years after the coup, Myanmar faces crisis Economic development
Four years after a military coup plunged Myanmar into chaos, the country faces an unprecedented “polycrisis” characterized by economic collapse, growing social conflict, complex climate threats and deepening poverty, according to a new report from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
The report, “Myanmar’s Protracted Polycrisis: Four Years of Instability,” released on Wednesday, paints a grim picture of a country in free fall, with nearly half the population living below the poverty line, vital services collapsing and the economy in shambles.
Without a political solution this year, the crisis is likely to worsen further.
“The year ahead will test Myanmar’s resilience,” the report’s authors warn, calling for urgent international intervention to ease the suffering and prevent total collapse.
“A more stable and peaceful Myanmar, underpinned by an open economy, that protects its human and natural resources, and that invests in the security and prosperity of all its people, is in the interests of both its neighbours and the international community as a whole,” the report says.
Black Market Boom
Myanmar’s GDP has contracted by nine percent since 2020, reversing the economic gains of the previous decade.
Inflation to hit 25.4 percent in 2024, a sharp drop reducing the purchasing power of the population.
The trade deficit has widened to 2.2 percent of GDP, exacerbated by tight restrictions on cross-border trade. The country’s currency has depreciated from 1,330 kyats to the dollar in 2021 to 4,520 kyats in 2025, making imports unaffordable and causing prices to rise sharply.
The situation has worsened after Myanmar was blacklisted by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) for failing to combat money laundering and terrorist financing.
Amid the crisis, the illicit economy has flourished. Myanmar has become the world’s leading producer of opium and heroin, and one of the largest producers of methamphetamine.
Opium poppy field in Myanmar.
Unregulated jade mining, valued at billions of dollars a year, fuels corruption and environmental destruction. Illegal gambling, human trafficking, and fraudulent schemes are rampant throughout the country, particularly in border areas.
Society in Crisis
The ongoing conflict has forced more than 3.5 million people to flee their homes within the country, with many more fleeing abroad. Internally displaced persons receive insufficient assistance and protection, and host communities are stretched thin.
Hunger has reached catastrophic levels, and agricultural production has fallen by 16 percent since 2021, largely due to conflict and climate disasters. Fertilizer shortages, soaring fuel prices and trade disruptions have sent rice prices up 47 percent in some areas.
Western Rakhine State is particularly vulnerable, with local food production projected to provide only 20 percent of the population’s food needs by mid-2025.
Government services have also collapsed, with more than half the population without access to electricity and hospitals in conflict zones non-functional.
Mass migration at risk
Myanmar’s critical economic and social situation has led to a mass migration of young people, with 3.7 million people moving to Thailand by 2023. Many face exploitation and forced labor due to difficulties with legal migration. Those who remain in the country risk being forcibly conscripted into the army.
Education is also under threat: in the 2023/2024 school year, more than 20 percent of children did not attend school due to conflict and economic hardship.
Crisis or Window of Opportunity?
Myanmar’s development prospects remain extremely unclear. If current trends continue, poverty will continue to rise, migration will increase, and the country’s economy will remain weakened by ongoing conflict and international isolation, the report’s authors warn. However, despite the deepening crisis, there is still scope for recovery, they say.
The report highlights the resilience of local communities and the role of civil society in restoring social cohesion. Engaging the diaspora through education and skills development can help retain and attract talent. Expanding economic opportunities for women can increase household incomes.
Agriculture plays a key role in Myanmar’s food security. Investing in climate-resilient crops and irrigation systems can increase yields. Environmental conservation, including forest and mangrove restoration, can create jobs and protect the ecosystem.