Reducing oil prices can adversely affect the Russian economy. Interview | The countries of the post -Soviet space are waiting for a slowdown in economic growth Economic development The UN revised the forecasts of global economic growth to 2025 towards the decrease – from 2.9 percent to 2.4 percent. About how the forecasts for the countries of the post -Soviet space have changed, the UN news service asked the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs of Grigor Agabekyan. & Amp; nbsp; ~ 60 > 62 > 62 ~ ha: of course, those large -scale shifts that occur or potentially occur in world economic relations, and a high level of uncertainty in general cannot but affect the post -Soviet space. These shifts include the so -called trade wars, the reconfiguration of supply chains, which includes the transfer of production from one country to another, as well as price shocks caused by additional tariffs. 62 ~For central banks, new dilemmas arose – to restrain potential inflation or stimulate the economy. I would not want to exaggerate the degree of today’s risks for the global economy, especially since some progress was outlined in the negotiations between the United States and China on the issue of mutual tariffs: the scale of the temporary reduction of tariffs exceeded the expectations of investors and financial markets responded to this with optimism. But the risks are preserved. ~ 60 > one of the important channels of the influence of the external situation on the CIS region is the dynamics of prices on raw materials, including energy resources. This is an important factor for the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan. For the economic prospects of the region, in particular for the countries of Central Asia, the economic situation in China, which is an important trading partner and investor in the region. ~ 60 > 60 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62Of course, to a very large extent, much also depends on the potential end of the war in Ukraine (or at least the achievement of a stable long -term truce), and possible changes in the sanctions against the Russian Federation. By the way, such changes can occur both towards relief and towards toughening. ~ 60 > additional tariffs introduced by imports from the CIS countries, not to have a special impact on external trade should 60 ~/Blockquote > 60 ~ P > UN news service: as tariffs introduced by the United States, will affect the economic situation in the post -Soviet countries Space ?Actually, additional tariffs introduced by the United States on imports from the CIS countries should not have to have a special influence on foreign trade, since the US share in the export of these countries is quite small. Formally, the new duties of the United States have affected, for example, Kazakhstani goods that will be taxed-27 percent, unlike other Central Asian countries, which are faced with 10 percent tariffs. ~ 60 >~ 60 > but the key export of Kazakhstan in the United States are such goods, uranium, ferroalloys, which are in the Union. A significant extent is exempted from the fee, that is, more than 90 percent of the supplies fall under exceptions. Moldova, in turn, encountered a 31 percent tariff, however, temporarily suspended, but in any case, the share in the USA in the total export of the country last year was less than three percent. ~ 60 > ~ 60 > 60 ~ Strong > UN news service: what are the total forecasts for post -Soviet countries ?~ 60 > ha: As for our forecasts, in our short report it is assumed that after exceeded the expectations of indicators reached in 2024, the CIS region in 2025 will slow down economic growth. First of all, this reflects the expectation of lower economic growth in the Russian Federation, at the level of 1.5 percent, and a weaker impulse from intermediary trade from the Russian Federation for smaller countries of the CIS. ~ 60 > ~ 60 > In addition, inflation increased to several stages of toughening monetary policy in Kazakhstan, Moldova and Ukraine. At the same time, in today’s situation, all macroeconomic forecasts are quite conditional. It is more important to pay attention to those factors that can be drivers of economic activity, or vice versa, slow down it. Since 2022, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the Russian economy consistently refuted many forecasts, as a rule, pessimistic, reducing only 1.2 percent in 2022, and reaching growth of 4.1 and 4.3 percent in 2023 and 2024. Nevertheless, today, in the first quarter of 2025, signs of real slowdown in a number of sectors are already observed. According to a number of assessments, in the first quarter of 2025, the Russian economy decreased compared to the last quarter of 2024. This happens for the first time since 2022. ~ 60 > impulse, which the Russian economy received from a sharp increase in military products, large -scale state investments in the defense sector … already Extract In general, among the economists there was a consensus that the impulse that the economy of the Russian Federation received from a sharp increase in the production of military products, large-scale state investments in the defense sector, the reorientation of trade flows, including oil exports, in the direction of India and China, and subsidized mortgage lending, already It is exhausted 60 > shortage of labor remains a serious problem – in March, the unemployment rate in the Russian Federation returned to a record low level of 2.3 percent, which limits the growth of production in many sectors. By the way, some regions of Belarus also faced a serious problem of lack of workers, where the possibility of attracting labor from the Eurasian Economic Union is seriously considered. 62 ~~ 60 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62In addition, the Bank of Russia monetary policy remains very strict in response to rooted inflation-despite some weakening of prices in March, the inflation nevertheless exceeded 10 percent in the annual calculus. So far, the base rate of the Central Bank remains at the level of 21 percent, this is a record high level since the beginning of the 2000s, which negatively affects private investment. Most likely, such a level of the base rate will remain at least in the first half of 2025. ~ 60 > Another trouble for the Russian economy is a reduction in oil price. Initially, when forming the budget, it was assumed that the price of Urals oil, which is the main oil export of the Russian Federation, will be slightly less than $ 70 per barrel in 2025. However, due to the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China, oil prices in April dropped to the lowest level from 2021, while the price of the brand & nbsp; urals decreased to $ 50 per barrel. ~ 60 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 ~ 62Another nuisance for the Russian economy is a decrease in oil price ~ ~ ~ 60 > In addition, in early May, the OPEC+ group decided to accelerate the growth of oil production for the second month in a row, despite the price of prices. By the way, the strengthening of the ruble against the backdrop of negotiations on the settlement of war in Ukraine led to an additional weakening of oil prices in rubles, which complicated the situation with the federal budget. At a level below $ 60 per barrel, the budget reserve of the National Welfare Fund will not be replenished. Perhaps the budget rule restored in 2024 will be revised. True, it should be noted that the volume of exports of Russian raw oil, in particular to India and China, increased sharply in April. This is a little paradoxical, but there is a plus in a price reduction – the price ceiling of $ 60 per barrel, introduced by the “large seven” countries, does not allow Western companies to insure and transport Russian oil sold above this price. Therefore, a number of shipowners returned to the Russian oil market when the price has decreased. But the European Union considers the new, 17th, a package of sanctions, which can significantly complicate the transportation of Russian oil with tankers. 60 > if the result of trade disputes is intentional weakening of the Chinese currency, then taking into account the high share of imports from China may arise for Russian manufacturers. Of course, the political decision of the conflict and the restoration of torn trade ties can favorably affect the prospects of the Russian economy. However, the European Commission has recently published a road map of refusing Russian energy, which is proposed to completely stop the import of Russian gas by 2027, including LNG, and also abandon the import of nuclear fuel. & Amp; NBSP; Although not all countries of the European Union are supported by such an approach, the restoration of the previous volumes of trade with the European Union should not be expected. 60 > UN news service: what awaits the Ukrainian economy to the nearest in the nearest Time ?~ 60 > ha: & nbsp; The economic prospects of Ukraine are still largely dependent on the possibility of terminating military operations, unhindered functioning of the trade corridor in the Black Sea and continuing the flows of international financial assistance. Despite a certain increase in taxes, the budget deficit of Ukraine can be about 16 percent in 2025. Ukraine receives financial assistance in various programs, including according to the program funded by income received from frozen Russian assets. ~ 60 > specific figures in relation to the Ukrainian economy are difficult to predict. After economic growth of 2.9 percent in 2024, due to extensive damage caused by energy infrastructure as a result of the war, this year we can expect more modest growth, about 2-2.5 percent. The conditions for accessing Ukrainian agricultural products to the European Union market since June 2025 may be slightly toughened under pressure from farmers of a number of Eastern European countries. 62 ~~ 60 > budget deficit of Ukraine can be about 16 percent in 2025 year The expenses for post -conflict recovery in Ukraine have recently been revised – increased to $ 524 billion. This amount is indicated in the joint report of the World Bank, the European Commission and the UN issued in February 2025. Of course, today the complete consent in the issue of financing expenses of such a scale has not been achieved. Recently, Ukraine signed an agreement with the United States for Mineral Resources, which, among other things, says the establishment of the US-Ukrainian Investment Fund for Restoration. The investment of the fund will be directed not only to the mining of minerals, the oil and gas sphere, but also to infrastructure projects, so that the fund can potentially play a certain role in restoration work, but this is a matter of the future. 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 ~One of the serious problems of Ukraine is external debt. Last year, Ukraine has achieved a successful restructuring of its public debt worth about $ 20 billion, which allowed the country to avoid default. However, there is part of public debt, the so -called warrants, the payments for which are attached to the indicators of the country’s economic growth. Unfortunately, the fact that in 2022, due to the war, the Ukrainian economy experienced an almost 30 percent decline, and even high growth, if it occur, will only be only partial recovery. ~ 60 > 60 > it is expected that the smaller economies of the CIS, in the Caucasus and in Central Asia will not see significant additional benefits from the Caucasus and in Central Asia. The growth of intermediary trade with the Russian Federation, which was an important growth factor for these countries in 2023–2024. In addition, it is not entirely clear what will be the amount of money transfer from the Russian Federation to these countries after tightening the employment conditions of migrants. In 2024, despite these tightening, the flow of money transfers to Kyrgyzstan even increased by 10.5 percent in dollar terms, while transfers to Armenia, on the contrary, were reduced. True, there are certain nuances associated with a decrease in the number of trains from the Russian Federation in Armenia, which were the recipients of part of these translations, but in any case, the picture is heterogeneous. most likely, the indicators of the economic growth of some of these countries will be more modest compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, a number of Central Asian countries can maintain strong dynamism due to the transition to internal growth drivers, thanks to sustainable private consumption against the background of real wage growth and increase state investments, in particular, in infrastructure projects. 60 > in the first quarter of 2025, the OBP of the OBP of the OBP Kyrgyzstan increased by impressive 13.1 percent, and Uzbekistan by 6.8 percent compared to the same period last year. The economy of Kazakhstan in early 2025 also demonstrated good dynamics compared to the previous year. Serious efforts are made in the country to transition to the growth of energy prices independent of fluctuations for energy prices. ~ 60 > read Also: UN reduced the forecast of the world’s growth in 2025 by almost half a percent 62 ~