Global crises are intensifying, accelerating and synchronizing. What the coming day has in store for us: the UN warns of “signals of change” Climate and Environment
The intertwining of environmental, technological and social changes will continue to undermine the well-being of people and the planet, so humanity must improve how it monitors and responds to crises. This is stated in a new report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the International Scientific Council.
The paper’s projections for the health of the planet and the well-being of its inhabitants show that eight global “shifts” are accelerating a triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution.
The degradation of nature, the rapid development of technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), competition for resources, growing inequality and declining trust in society are among the trends creating a “polycrisis”. We are talking about a situation in which global crises are intensifying, accelerating and synchronizing.
The report also examines 18 accompanying “signals of change,” which provide greater insight into the potential disruptions, both positive and negative, for which the world must prepare.
“Tracking the Signals changes and by using the foresight approach described in this report, including looking beyond traditional environmental boundaries, the world can avoid repeating the mistakes of the past and focus on solutions that will help withstand future shocks,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
Shifts and signals of change
In particular, demand for critical rare earth elements, minerals and metals needed for the energy transition is expected to quadruple by 2040. As a result, the need for deep-sea and even space mining will increase. This poses potential threats to nature and biodiversity, could increase pollution, and also spark new conflicts.
Although artificial intelligence and digital transformation can bring benefits, they have serious environmental consequences, such as increased demand for critical minerals and rare earth elements, as well as water resources to meet the needs of data centers.
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In addition, it is predicted that as permafrost melts on a warming planet, ancient, potentially pathogenic microorganisms may become active. This phenomenon has already led to an anthrax outbreak in Siberia.
The report also warns that forced displacement is increasing the impact of crises on human health and the environment. Conflict and climate change are key factors in this problem. One out of every 69 people is now forcibly displaced, almost double the rate ten years ago.
Forecasting and Monitoring
However, the report notes that the use of forecasting tools will help to better prepare for challenges and future disruptions. According to the head of the International Science Council, foresight techniques can help move beyond the short term to identify opportunities and risks if such research is carried out with the participation of representatives of diverse sectors and segments of the population.
Experts recommend adopting a new social contract that gives a voice to a wide range of stakeholders, including indigenous peoples and youth, and rethinking progress measures to focus beyond economic growth.
Governments and societies can also use short-term goals and indicators that will allow them to be more flexible in their management. This will require integrating and improving monitoring of environmental change, as well as improving access to data and knowledge.